By Michael Kohn
The Bulletin
BEND, Ore. — October typically marks the end of the wildfire season.
But record-breaking heat in midsummer set up conditions to keep fires burning in Central Oregon late in the year, even as the leaves change color and sweaters emerge from closets.
The most active fires still burning up forest and grassland in Central Oregon include the Pine Fire, 22 miles southeast of Bend, and the Little Lava Fire burning south of Mount Bachelor. This week these fires were still sending plumes of smoke into the skies above Bend and leaving flecks of ash on cars and window sills.
The October fires put a cap on an extraordinary year when wildfires tore across 1.9 million acres in Oregon, easily topping the previous high of 1.2 million acres burned, set in 2012. This year’s total is also well above the 10-year (2014-2023) average of 610,597 acres burned.
Around 834,000 burned acres were human-caused fires and another 1 million acres were lightning-caused. The wildfires have erupted on a landscape suffering from drought — 60% of the state is in moderate drought, including almost all of Central Oregon.
Oregon acres burned
Sonny Caldwell, a Deschutes National Forest deputy fire staff officer, said it’s not uncommon for a wildfire to flare up in October. But he adds that fire seasons now start earlier and last longer than they did in the past. This tracks with national trends as wildfire season has grown longer in other states, particularly in the arid West.
“It has been an abnormally warm and dry October this year,” said Caldwell. “We are in a long-standing drought. Both live and dead fuel moistures are extremely dry and burning readily.”
The cost of suppressing these fires has run into the hundreds of millions.
The five most expensive fires in Oregon so far this year have totaled nearly $450 million in suppression costs. These include the Willamette Complex ($144 million), Battle Mountain Complex ($86 million), Diamond Complex ($74 million), Lane 1 Fire ($72 million) and the Falls Fire ($68 million).
Perfect storm of events
Officials say it was a perfect storm of events that led to so many fires erupting across the landscape.
“This year we saw extreme fire conditions early,” said Jessica Neujahr, a spokesperson for the Oregon Department of Forestry. “A heat wave in July dried out fuels, then thunderstorms moved through.”
Meg Krawchuk, an associate professor at Oregon State University’s College of Forestry, echoed Neujahr’s comments by saying there was “a confluence” of factors related to the high number of acres burned in Oregon this year.
Lightning remains prominent among them.
“We had some incredible lightning events across the state,” she said. “We had hot-dry conditions conducive to carrying fire from those ignitions.”
Krawchuk said once the fire load intensified resources became strained. This leaves fewer people on the ground to fight the next wave of fires, allowing small fires to quickly grow in size.
Forest health
She points out that some level of fire activity is welcome as it can clear out underbrush and improve forest health. Throughout their existence, forests have adapted to fire. But too much of it threatens people, infrastructure and property.
“Not all fire is good fire. I think what we are striving for is having the right kind of fire in the right place and at the right time,” said Krawchuk. “Some of the fire this year was good. Some of it was not.”
July proved to be the hottest month on record for much of Central Oregon. The hot and dry weather set up tinderbox conditions for an explosive August and September that saw wildland firefighters battling multiple fires across the region.
Personnel to fight wildfires in Oregon came from 20 states this year, including Hawaii, North Carolina, Florida, New Mexico and Alaska. Canadian firefighters were also deployed in Oregon as part of an international agreement between the United States and Canada.
These firefighters were deployed to around 70 large fires and many more smaller ones.
Suppression tactics
Wildfire suppression tactics have evolved in recent years. Fires burning close to towns and infrastructure get the most attention, and suppression tactics can be strong and swift to protect lives and property.
Direct tactics are almost always used in an initial attack, within the first 48 hours, said Caldwell. It is during an extended attack, when direct strategies have proven ineffective, an indirect strategy is employed.
And these indirect tactics are being used more often, said Caldwell.
“This is primarily due to the fact that fires are commonly burning at rates that were very rarely experienced in the past,” he said. “Fire rates of spread have been increasing year after year, likely due to extended drought and increased fuel loading.”
One indirect method preferred by fire managers is the creation of shaded fuel breaks — ribbons of forest that are thinned to stop an approaching fire. Once a fire reaches the break it is easier to suppress. This approach was used this year in fighting the Red Fire near Crescent Lake and the Pete’s Lake Fire a year ago west of Bend .
While it can be difficult to watch a forest burn, science shows that forests are adapted to fire and need it periodically to reduce fuels, improve forest health and head off the likelihood of future megafires.
When fires are allowed to burn longer, creeping their way to a containment line, that increases the possibility for poor air quality in Central Oregon communities. But an indirect strategy “also allows firefighters to engage the fire in a safer location on their terms,” Caldwell says.
“Using indirect tactics provides firefighters with the time they need to pick and establish a control line that offers the best chance of success while also limiting hazard exposure to the responders,” he said.
Unfavorable weather
Neujahr from Oregon Department of Forestry said in addition to the hot weather and lightning, Oregon also experienced strong wind events this summer.
“The weather was not on our side this year,” she said.
Weather data between June and August shows that Oregon experienced around 15,000 lightning strikes, according to Larry O’Neill, an associate professor with Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences.
This number is below historical averages for lightning strikes, but O’Neill said the area burned by lightning strikes has increased due to drier conditions caused by climate change.
“Fuels are more receptive to lightning in recent years,” he said.
“So a lower number of lightning strikes are generating disproportionately more fires because of increased lightning efficiency.”
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